CLIMAS Methodological Guidelines for future scenario building
Intro – this tool gives groups a structured way to explore how climate futures may unfold and how different choices shape resilience. It helps people step beyond immediate concerns and work together on long-term possibilities that matter for their community.
What is this tool? It is a participatory foresight method that supports citizens, stakeholders, and institutions in imagining several possible futures. Through guided exercises, it connects lived experience with systemic forces and turns collective thinking into scenarios that can guide adaptation planning.
Why use it and when? Use it when a process needs deeper reflection, shared imagination, and space to explore uncertainty. It is most helpful once participants already have a basic understanding of the topic but need a structured way to compare different futures and reveal hidden assumptions.
How to use it?
- Preparation and planning. A clear frame, shared background, and inclusive participant mix set the ground. Facilitators prepare the scope, time horizon, and materials, then create conditions that allow everyone to contribute with confidence and without pressure.
- Identifying key drivers: Participants explore the forces that influence the future of their region or assembly topic. Through discussion, they choose the most influential factors and describe how each might shift. These drivers become the backbone for scenario creation.
How the tool was developed. Its design builds on futures studies, participatory workshop traditions, and research on climate resilience and adaptation. It merges academic methods with accessible facilitation steps so non-experts can explore long-range questions with ease.
Scientific background, testing, and validation. The method was piloted in Vilnius and Chios, refined through expert review, and analysed with a structured coding approach to understand how adaptation strategies appear in citizen-generated scenarios. These stages confirmed feasibility, clarity, and transferability.
Conclusions. The tool helps groups uncover what matters for their climate future, translate community insights into structured scenarios, and strengthen shared understanding of adaptation choices. Its flexibility makes it valuable for assemblies, municipalities, and learning environments.
The document will be uploaded on the CLIMAS resources section soon, named D3.8 – Methodology for citizen-collaborative future scenario building for a climate resilient society (Final).
Meanwhile, you can explore the initial version D3.1